How About Those Predictions I Made for 2019?

It’s almost predictions time again, which means that first we need to take a look at how last year’s predictions turned out.  Well, we don’t *have* to, but in my mind a bite of humble pie is a necessary punishment for doing this sort of thing:

• Zayo will go private — Check!  Well, the deal is not yet final obviously, but the deal was in fact made.
• Sprint/T-Mobile will get messy but will get done — Oops!  This one is still in court and it’s not yet clear what the result will be. The two wireless providers satisfied federal regulators, but not the states.
• Early 5G launches will happen but will underwhelm — Check!  Ok, this was a bit of a softball, but after the prior year I needed the help.
• Security Moves Onto the Front Burner — Kinda.  It’s certainly not on the back burner, but is it more of a main course than it was the prior year?   I suppose this one needed more objective metric.
• Fiber M&A in the USA will slow down — Check!  Other than the Zayo deal and Macquarie’s moves in the Midwest with Bluebird, not all that much fiber changed hands in the US, while we did see more than usual over in Europe.  That being said, my individual M&A projections were a total bust:
  • Crown Castle will make multiple moves – Oops!  In fiber terms, Crown Castle did nothing.
  • GTT will buy some US fiber – Oops!  They have hit some speed bumps with the European fiber they did buy, and might wind up even selling that!
  • GCX will find a home – Oops!  Actually, while the RCom soap opera is winding down, GCX recently decided to forge an independent path out of the ashes.

I suppose that’s why it pays to make one’s predictions less specific.  So have I learned my lesson? We’ll see next week when it’s time to dust off the crystal ball again.

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Categories: Mergers and Acquisitions · Security · Wireless