Level 3 Q1: Strength in the USA, but Weakness in Europe

April 28th, 2016 by · 1 Comment

With 18 months since the tw telecom acquisition under its belt, Level 3 Communications is now entering into what hopefully turn out to be a period of organic growth where the combined company starts to show its promise.  There's sure to be ongoing integration work of course, but for 2016 it shouldn't be the dominant feature.  They'll be starting from a relatively low overall base though, as today the company released its first quarter numbers, the relevant numbers of which are summarized in the table below:

 

$ in millions Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Comments
 – North America – Wholesale 438 450 421 425 434 Wholesale up, and Enterprise growth was solid.
 – North America – Enterprise 1097 1,101 1130 1146 1167
 – EMEA – Wholesale 69 68 69 69 65 Ouch, 0uch, and ouch.
 – EMEA – Enterprise 110 111 117 118 107
 – EMEA – UK Government 26 25 26 22 19
 – Latin America – Wholesale 40 40 39 35 39 Venezuelan deconsolidation plus currency fluctuations, but 10% constant currency growth over last year still.
 – Latin America – Enterprise 145 146 144 125 116
Total Core Network Services 1,927  1,941 1,946 1,943 1,947
 – Wholesale Voice & Other 126 120 116 110 104
Total Revenue 2,053 2,061  2,062 2,053 2051 Below expectations
Network Access Costs 723  696 706 708 694 Synergies still kicking in.
Network Expenses 351 359 356 337 331 Here also.
Cash SG&A 339 336 325 323 316 And here
Adjusted EBITDA 635 665 657 681 710 Quite strong considering the revenue numbers
Adjusted earnings per share 0.35  0.42 0.00 0.53 0.35 Below estimates, but this is still a volatile number.
Network access margin % 64.8% 66.2% 65.8% 65.5% 66.2% Back over 66%.
Adj. EBITDA margin % 30.9% 32.3% 31.9% 33.2% 34.6% 35% here we come
 
Capital Expenditures 254 317 328 330 297 14.5% of revenue, higher than last year but down sequentially
Free Cash Flow 51  102 247 226 213 Significantly stronger than we usually see in Q1, full year guidance was maintained.

Revenues - In North America, revenue growth was strong andn sold.  Enterprise revenues continued to surge, and wholesale revenues did their part as well for once.  But overseas, currency fluctuations dominated the numbers.  In South America, a 10% organic enterprise growth rate under constant currency since last year was completely negated by the strong dollar, while in Europe organic weakness across the board was magnified.  The overall effect was to bring Level 3's first quarter revenues in under analyst projections of $2.08B.

Expenses & EBITDA - Cost savings from integration synergies continued to roll in, bringing expenses down and raising EBITDA all the way up to $710M for the quarter.   At 34.6% of revenues, this is a new high and is knocking on the 35% door. That was good enough for a slight bump in full year guidance from 9-12% growth to 10-12% in EBITDA -- a raising of the lower end.

Earnings & Free Cash Flow - EPS is still a volatile number, but $0.35 per share was below analyst projections and probably won't make traders happy in the short term.  The free cash flow number was quite strong for Q1, which historically has been their lowest point of the year.  The company maintained full year FCF numbers of $1.0-1.1B.

Further Thoughts - The European business still seems to have a ways to go to turn around, and it seems to me that they'll have to find a better way forward with it.  It's overshadowing some pretty good US operational performance.  I still think an inorganic move is inevitable, and prices on the other side of the Atlantic are still attractive.  But when will Fidelity decide to monetize Colt?

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Categories: Fiber Networks · Financials

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  • Anonymous says:

    not exactly stellar report but market with ~3% gain seems ok with it. I guess we can be satisfied also unless a plunge is coming after initial spike

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