TheJuice's LVLT Model for Q4

February 10th, 2009 by · Leave a Comment

Here’s my model prior to the call tomorrow.  Essentially I’m looking at 265 in ebitdas and 100M of FCF, no earnings of course.  My data is not much different from Rob’s except in that I’m a bit more optimistic on the wholesale voice area and perhaps in working capital (which is a total crap shoot and an area I have been way wrong on for each q).  I expect they will say they will be FCF for all of 2009 as their ebitdas margins should move up into the 30’s at some point next year based on non recurring cost cuts (I hope), lower capex, network optimization and business process improvement (unity).  I think 1050 to 1150 is a conservative range for 09.  I still think my bond trade is the way to go [buying the 17’s until they hit the 70’s than perhaps move back into the stock depending on valuation relative to their group] but you never know.  Good luck tomorrow.

[Rob: thanks juice!  Because I am currently travelling, I was unable to set your spreadsheet up with Google documents this time like I have done with mine – so I left your model in the form we have posted it before. ]

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Categories: Financials · Mergers and Acquisitions · Metro fiber

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