As Rob has updated his model here is my revision as well. I have made a few changes to the format in an effort to clarify the 'other' line item that contained working cap changes and other one-time adjustments on the previous spreadsheet. Essentially I have used data from the cash flow statement to tie adjusted ebitdas back to the actual changes in cash. Without further ado:
The non-interactive version, which will work in any browser but does not allow you to enter your own numbers.
All told I believe we see a big jump in adjusted ebitdas this quarter - originally I had thought we would come in around 230 - and as a consequence have been a buyer of the common in the recent days. I believe Wall Street is looking for numbers in the 220-230 range so my forecast is quite a bit above 'consensus range.' Finally, as you can tell we are now in the realm of FCFBE so my eyes have been focusing on working capital as that is really the difference. This is the number I really got wrong in Q1 (by -79 million!). I called IR but had no luck in getting anything useful out of them on this subject so my -29 is pretty much a complete guess.
Post Script: As I instructed in my previous post, all you need to do is enter in your guesstimates into the yellow boxes and the spreadsheet will do the rest. If you find an error please post a comment on the blog or drop me a PM on IV's LVLT board