My revised LVLT financial model

June 29th, 2008 by · 2 Comments

Back in early may, I posted my Level 3 spreadsheet.  It is a detailed model that allows study of trends within Level 3’s business groups and the effects on margins, ebitda, and cashflow.  Well, Q2 ends on Monday, which means that it is prediction time prior to the earnings call in 3-4 weeks.  And in preparation for that event, I am posting the latest version of my model.

This time, the assumptions I am making are not merely placeholders, but my own tentative predictions.

There are two versions:

  • The Interactive Model – for those with IE and the Office plugin.  The assumptions can be changed and the effects seen on each following sheet.
  • The Noninteractive Model – for those with Firefox or other browsers etc.  This is read only, unfortunately.

For those who aren’t interested in the model, but who are interested in my predictions, here you go:

Core Revenue 970M
– Wholesale Network 363M
– Wholesale Voice 183M
– Enterprise 244M
– Content 102M
– Europe 78M
– Communications Revenue 1.055B
Communications Gross Margin 58.1%
SG&A (ex stock comp) 384M
Ebitda 229M
CashFlow roughly breakeven
EPS -0.10

Of course, I’d love to see better, but I still consider Q2 a waiting quarter. Basically they need to show a) cost controls, and b) hints of revenue growth.

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Categories: Financials · Internet Backbones

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2 Comments So Far

  • Alfred J. Beljan says:


    rather than show b) HINTS of revenue growth, why not show the REAL thing….

  • tech101 says:

    It’s good analysis.

    Your readers would appreciate your revealing your positions in all these companies you cover, I guess.

    Thanks for all the good work.

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