So yesterday Dan Caruso took issue with my post on measuring online video growth , but then we had to wait a whole day before he said why. Yes Mr. Powell, I'd like you to meet Mr. Hanger, Cliff Hanger. Now given Dan's earlier positions that bandwidth growth is in fact very healthy, I thought at first he was going to dispute the word 'if', but it turns out he was looking squarely at the word 'triple'. Here is what I said:
Folks seeking to measure the growth of traffic from online video have to look past the videos viewed and take into account the changing parameters of those videos. The explosion, if it happens, will come from more videos being viewed at higher average bitrates and for longer times - a triple effect
What Dan presumeably means is that if people watch twice as many videos at twice the bitrate for twice as long, the effect is not 'triple' it is 8x and the growth is exponential rather than linear. And exponential growth would surely lead to an explosion! And each effect can be increasing at its own rate, e.g. HDTV is several orders of magnitude above a YouTube video in bitrate if people start streaming it in quantity the growth of average bitrate is going to be much much larger. I should have known he'd look at it that way.
Now, I obviously wasn't using the word 'triple' as a multiplier, only to count the effects we ought to look at, but I will grant that it was ambiguous. But hey, IT WAS A BLOG POST, some ambiguity is a given, I'm an engineer not a poet.
FWIW, I don't think all the effects can be multiplied either, they are interdependent. For instance it doesn't make sense to expect both the number and duration of videos to go up independently, if people watch a 2 hour full screen video, that's 2 hours they weren't watching 30 YouTube funny puppy clips or something. Longer duration leads to fewer actual videos watched. But I was ignoring such interactions and just counting the effects. I was also ignoring the *size* of each effect, I was just saying the other effects existed and should be considered!
So Dan, rather than the word 'triple', what word or phrase would you use?
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