Infrastructure Vulnerability May Be the Next Big Danger, Globally

Over the weekend, the UK Defence Secretary highlighted activity by Russian submarines deep under the Atlantic. The craft are said to have been surveiling subsea cables and pipelines, which as an island the UK is more heavily dependent on than others. But I don’t think it’s an isolated thought, rather it’s learned behavior from what’s going on in the Strait of Hormuz.

It’s something of a truisim that it’s easier to destroy than it is to create. That’s the basis for Iran’s claim to control such a key waterway. Technically any country in the area could ‘control’ the strait in the same way if they set out to. It just takes a minimal capability and a threat, and suddenly the cargo can’t be insured. Unless one pays the toll.

Other countries who can’t otherwise get what they think they deserve can’t help but have noticed this. If you can threaten an economic artery, maybe you can get paid, or attention, or obedience, or respect, or something. Some, like Russia, can project force globally. Others just at what’s next to them. But the lesson they will take from Iran is to prepare to do so, even if it is just to have a card to play at a negotiating table one day.

The subsea infrastructure that keeps the internet operating globally is pretty easy to threaten. The Russians may have special submarines, but let’s face it. In all too many places, all you need is a fishing boat, an anchor, and a bit of information. And terrestrially, a rented backhoe and some hardhats from Amazon will do the job.

No wonder the hyperscalers have been looking for quad diversity. I guess that’s table stakes now. Defending it all may be impossible, but if it’s too resilient to really damage without dozens of hits, then the threats will perhaps be (more) hollow.  I wonder how much we need to do for that to be the case.  It will be a moving target, regardless, because traffic growth will never stop.

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Categories: Security · Undersea cables