TheJuice's Level 3 Model - Q3 2008 Projections

Updated 8/25/2008 - As always, this model is a work in progress, see the accompanying blog post for further details and discussion.

Q108 est Q108 act est vs act Q1 Q208 est Q208 act est vs act Q2 Q308 est Q308 act est vs act Q3
cns base 781 774 -7 774 765 -9 779   -779
wvs base 150 150 0 150 150 0 150   -150
cns growth 17 0 -17 15 14 -1 23   -23
wvoice growth 5 34 29 35 25 -10 25   -25
vvyx sale / defr's 0 0 0 -4 18 22 0   0
termination 2 0 -2 0 0 0 0   0
core rev 955 958 3 970 972 2 977 0 -977
other 50 51 1 44 46 2 39   -39
sbc 40 57 17 40 54 14 40   -40
com rev 1045 1066 21 1055 1072 17 1057 0 -1057
com cogs -430 -459 -29 -430 -442 -12 -421 0 421
cns base gp 497 490 -7 497 498 1 509   -509
wvs base gp 45 45 0 45 45 0 45 0 -45
cns growth gp 13 0 -13 12 11 -1 19 0 -19
wvs growth gp 2 10 8 11 8 -3 8 0 -8
termination gp 2 0 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0
other gp 40 41 1 40 41 1 36 0 -36
sbc gp 17 21 4 20 27 7 20 0 -20
com gp 615 607 -8 625 630 5 636 0 -636
com cash sga -400 -395 5 -375 -373 2 -371   371
com ebitdas 215 212 -3 250 257 7 265 0 -265
com ebitdas adj (restruct etc) -7 -7 0 -4 -4 0 -4   4
coal/other ebitdas 6 6 0 4 -2 -6 4   -4
consol ebitdas 214 211 -3 250 251 1 265 0 -265
interest, net -145 -129 16 -123 -128 -5 -129   129
cf operating (wc etc) -50 -129 -79 -100 -15 85 30   -30
cf investing (capx etc) -145 -111 34 -127 -104 23 -126   126
adjustment 0 -2 -2 0 0 0 0   0
free cash flow -150 -160 -10 -100 4 104 40 0 -40
cf financing (debt etc) + vvyx -25 -23 2 130 120 -10 0   0
adjustment 0 2 2 0 4 4 0   0
change in cash -175 -181 -6 30 128 98 40 0 -40
           
cns base gp/cns base revs 63.64% 63.31% -0.33% 64.21% 65.10% 0.89% 65.34% #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
cns b+g gp/cns b+g revs 63.93% 63.31% -0.63% 64.52% 65.37% 0.84% 65.77% #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
core gp/core revs 53.79% 52.21% -1.58% 53.57% 53.16% -0.41% 54.76% #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
com gp/com revs 58.90% 56.94% -1.96% 59.23% 58.78% -0.45% 60.15% #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
com cash sga/com revs 38.28% 37.05% 1.22% 35.55% 34.79% 0.76% 35.10% #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
com ebitdas/com revs 20.62% 19.89% -0.73% 23.68% 23.98% 0.30% 25.05% #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
capex/com revs 13.88% 10.41% 3.46% 12.04% 9.70% 2.34% 11.92% #DIV/0! #DIV/0!