Level 3 Model - Q3 2008 Projections

by thejuice

Updated 10/30/2008 - As always, this model is a work in progress, see the accompanying blog post for further details and discussion.

Q407 act Q108 est Q108 act est vs act Q1 Q208 est Q208 act est vs act Q2 Q308 est est vs act 08 est vs act Q3 Q408 est Q408 act est vs act Q4 FY08 est FY08 act est vs act 08
existing cns revs 752 781 774 -7 774 765 -9 779 779 0 791 791 0 3125 3109 -16
cns growth revs 29 17 0 -17 15 14 -1 20 12 -8 12 12 0 65 38 -27
existing wvs revs 150 150 150 0 150 150 0 175 173 -2 190 190 0 665 663 -2
wvs growth revs 22 5 34 29 35 25 -10 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 59 19
vvyx sale / defr's etc. 0 0 0 0 -4 18 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 -4 18 22
termination revs 2 2 0 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 -2
core revs 955 955 958 3 970 972 2 974 964 -10 993 993 0 3893 3887 -6
other revs 56 50 51 1 44 46 2 90 90 0 81 81 0 265 268 3
sbc revs 73 40 57 17 40 54 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 80 111 31
com revs 1084 1045 1066 21 1055 1072 17 1064 1054 -10 1074 1074 0 4238 4266 28
com cogs -444 -424 -459 -35 -430 -442 -12 -426 -425 1 -437 -437 0 -1717 -1763 -46
existing cns gp 480 502 498 -4 490 484 -6 510 507 -3 517 517 0 2019 2006 -13
cns growth gp 22 13 0 -13 12 11 -1 16 10 -6 10 10 0 52 30 -21
improvement in cns gp (integreation) 0 0 -8 -8 7 14 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 6 -1
existing wvs gp 45 45 45 0 45 45 0 53 52 -1 57 57 0 200 199 -1
wvs growth gp 7 2 10 8 11 8 -3 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 18 6
termination gp 2 2 0 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 -2
other gp 45 40 41 1 40 41 1 60 60 0 54 54 0 194 196 2
sbc gp 39 17 21 4 20 27 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 37 48 11
com gp 640 621 607 -14 625 630 5 638 629 -10 637 637 0 2521 2503 -18
com cash sga -389 -400 -395 5 -375 -373 2 -373 -370 3 -358 -358 0 -1506 -1496 10
com ebitdas 251 221 212 -9 250 257 7 265 259 -7 279 279 0 1015 1007 -8
com ebitdas adj (restruct etc) -5 -7 -7 0 -4 -4 0 -4 -2 2 -2 -2 0 -17 -15 2
coal/other ebitdas 0 6 6 0 4 -2 -6 4 -2 -6 3 3 0 17 5 -12
consol ebitdas 246 220 211 -9 250 251 1 265 255 -11 280 280 0 1015 997 -18
interest, net -105 -145 -129 16 -123 -128 -5 -129 -129 0 -129 -129 0 -526 -515 11
cf operating (wc etc) 53 -50 -129 -79 -100 -15 85 29 -9 -38 100 100 0 -21 -53 -32
cf investing (capx etc) -153 -145 -111 34 -127 -104 23 -125 -126 -1 -129 -129 0 -526 -470 56
adjustment 0 0 -2 -2 0 0 0 0 5 5 0 0 0 0 3 3
free cash flow 41 -120 -160 -40 -100 4 105 40 -4 -45 122 122 0 -58 -38 20
cf financing (debt etc) + vvyx -138 -25 -23 2 130 120 -10 0 -68 -68 0 0 0 105 29 -76
adjustment 0 0 2 2 0 4 4 0 -7 -7 0 0 0 0 -1 -1
change in cash -97 -145 -181 -36 30 128 99 40 -79 -120 122 122 0 47 -10 -57
                   
existing cns gp/existing cns revs 63.83% 64.34% 64.34%
0.00%
63.31% 63.31%
0.00%
65.40% 65.08%
-0.32%
65.31% 65.31% 0.00% 64.59% 64.52% -0.08%
cns all gp/cns all revs 64.34% 64.62% 63.31% -1.31% 64.52% 65.40% 0.88% 65.78% 65.31% -0.47% 65.53% 65.53% 0.00% 65.11% 64.90% -0.22%
core gp/core revs 58.23% 59.08% 56.91% -2.17% 58.21% 57.82% -0.39% 59.35% 58.97% -0.38% 58.73% 58.73% 0.00% 58.82% 58.11% -0.71%
com gp/com revs 59.00% 59.42% 56.94% -2.48% 59.23% 58.81% -0.43% 59.97% 59.63% -0.34% 59.33% 59.33% 0.00% 59.49% 58.68% -0.81%
com cash sga/com revs 35.89% 38.28% 37.05% 1.22% 35.55% 34.79% 0.76% 35.04% 35.10% -0.06% 33.33% 33.33% 0.00% 35.53% 35.07% 0.47%
com ebitdas/com revs 23.11% 21.14% 19.89% -1.26% 23.68% 24.01% 0.33% 24.93% 24.53% -0.40% 26.00% 26.00% 0.00% 23.96% 23.61% -0.35%
capex/com revs 14.11% 13.88% 10.41% 3.46% 12.04% 9.70% 2.34% 11.74% 11.95% -0.21% 12.01% 12.01% 0.00% 12.41% 11.02% 1.39%
boxed relationship     -1.03%     2.10%     -0.09%   0.22% 0.30%