Earnings Previews: Juniper, Akamai, Infinera, Equinix

This week will see a deluge of Q2 earnings announcements, including an interesting cross-section of the most dynamic internet infrastructure stocks. Here’s a quick look at four of them: Juniper reports on Tuesday, followed by Akamai, Infinera, and Equinix on Wednesday.

Juniper didn’t impress with its outlook last quarter, but has seen its stock price rebound in the past three months.  Analysts are expecting them to hit their numbers for Q2, but as always the real focus will be on their guidance for the third quarter and any indications that the overall environment for vendors is strengthening (or weakening).

$ in millions	Q1/12	Q2/12	Q3/12	Q4/12	Q1/13	Q2/13 (guidance)
Platform Systems	765.7	810.2	828.5	866.4	809.2
Software Systems	266.8	263.6	289.8	274.4	250.0
Revenue	1032.5	1073.8	1118.3	1140.8	1059.2	1070-1100
Non-GAAP EPS	0.16	0.19	0.22	0.28	0.24	0.22-0.26
Non-GAAP Operating Margin %	12.0%	15%	16.9%	18.2%	15.7%	17.5%

Akamai, on the other hand, is coming off a strong first quarter, boosted in part by a slower than expected winding down of revenue from a large video customer.  The market seems to be optimistic about their chances to come in on the higher end of guidance, but it looks to me as if there are enough headwinds to not raise expectations.

$ in millions	Q1/12	Q2/12	Q3/12	Q4/12	Q1/13	Q2/13 (guidance)
Revenue	319.4	331.3	345.3	377.9	368.0	368-378
COS	102.6	107.5	110.0	111.9	120.4
SG&A+R&D	140.4	139.4	149.7	164.4	140.0
Gross Margin %	67.8%	67.6%	68.1%	70.4%	67.2%
Adj.  EPS	0.41	0.43	0.43	0.54	0.51	0.44-0.46

Infinera is looking to ride the 100G wave further, although things never happen as quickly as the market would like with the adoption of new technology.   Analysts don’t quite yet believe in the higher guidance they gave last quarter, projecting them to come in a bit below the midpoint.  However, I suspect Infinera really does have legs this year.

$ in millions	Q1/12	Q2/12	Q3/12	Q4/12	Q1/13	Guidance
Revenue	104.7	93.5	112.2	128.1	124.6	Q2: 130-140, 2013: ~20% growth
Operating Expenses	60.3	58.7	59.7	61.8	57.6	Q2: 53-54, 2013: 205-210
Non-GAAP EPS	(0.10)	(0.16)	(0.07)	(0.05)	(0.06)	Q2: (0.04)-0.01
Non-GAAP Gross Margin %	40%	37%	39%	36%	36%	Q2: 37-39%, 2013: 38-40%

And Equinix is looking to regain some momentum after a relatively uninspiring first quarter followed by the IRS taking some air out of the REIT balloon.  I wouldn’t expect anything huge, but it’s generally been a bad idea to bet against these guys more than one quarter in a row.

$ in millions for continuing operations	Q2/12	Q3/12	Q4/12	Q1/13	Guidance
– Recurring	433.8	462.8	481.7	495.3
– Non-recurring	23.5	25.9	24.8	24.2
Revenues	457.2	488.7	506.5	519.8	Q2: 530-534, 2013:>2200
Cash COS	142.0	158.0	159.0	162.8
Cash SG&A	97.8	102.4	108.3	113.2	Q2:120-124, 2013:490-510
Adjusted EBITDA	217.5	228.3	239.3	243.5	Q2:240-244, 2013:1010
Earnings Per Share	0.73	0.58	0.68	0.71
Ongoing Capex	37.5	37.6	43.5	34.0	Q2:45, 2013:165
Expansion Capex	158.9	174.5	166.9	41.7	Q2:125-135, 2013:385-485

Time will tell, as it always does.

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